Hanson will put rocket up MP's backside
PAULINE Hanson just has to exist for One Nation to perform strongly in the Ipswich and Lockyer region at the next state election.
The Queensland Redistribution Commission of the ECQ has released its draft boundaries for the next state election and One Nation will be pleased with the results locally, particularly in the seat of Lockyer.
The boundaries may be tweaked later based on feedback received of course, but Ms Hanson should perform strongly in what has been a heartland area for One Nation.
The QT discovered very quickly at the exit polls we conducted at Ripley and Bundamba booths at the last Federal election that voters had little or no knowledge of the One Nation candidate running in the seat of Blair.
Her supporters said they had voted for Ms Hanson in both the upper and lower house, even though she was obviously just on the Senate ticket.
Ms Hanson's connection to Ipswich and her party's previous success in seats in the district are well known.
But Ms Hanson is set to come under fire from a concerted union and ALP campaign which will paint her as an enemy of workers and pensioners.
The thrust of that campaign will be 'look at how she votes (in the Senate), not what she says' and will target Ms Hanson as a lackey for the LNP.
How she and her party responds will be worth the wait.
Ipswich West MP Jim Madden will be dancing in the aisles about the draft redistribution but he will have an almighty battle on his hands. Losing the lower Somerset is a bonus for Mr Madden, even though he did win Lowood and Fernvale at the last election.
But One Nation was not a factor then.
I suggest Mr Madden put his dance moves on hold.
He has spent too much of his time since being elected in Lowood and Fernvale, areas he now does not have in his seat, so that support he has will be of no use to him at the next election.
It is the working class suburbs of Leichhardt, One Mile and North Ipswich that will be worth watching. The big question is whether Mr Madden can keep those traditional Labor voters in his camp, or whether they leak to One Nation.
I'm not sure how many times Mr Madden has been to Jane St, Leichhardt but he needs to get to those sorts of places more often.
The other factor will be the strength of the LNP candidate. I expect the LNP will do a preference deal with One Nation here, so if the LNP does finish third it will come down to how many of its supporters follow the how to vote card.
If there is still a One Nation wave of support at the next state election, Mr Madden is in deep trouble.
Ipswich West will gain a bit more of Amberley from Lockyer and take Yamanto from Ipswich.
Leading Labor figures in Ipswich believe Mr Madden will hold on, but I still favour One Nation to win the seat.
A look at the draft redistribution in Lockyer shows that it has gained the lower Somerset region and lost Greenbank, making it more of a conservative seat than it already was.
That makes it essentially a contest between LNP candidate Jim McDonald and One Nation's Jim Savage. Labor preferences will be decisive but the ALP is no chance in the seat of Lockyer.
On the draft boundary changes, One Nation is the favourite in Lockyer in a tight contest.
The seat of Bundamba is now a straight tick in the box for the ALP. If sitting MP Jo-Ann Miller gains pre-selection she will win in a canter. If she does not, it is still hard to see anything other than a Labor win.
The seat now contains the entire suburb of Bundamba, gained from the seat of Ipswich. It loses Springfield and neighbouring suburbs to the new seat of Jordan.
The seat of Ipswich, held by the ALP's Jennifer Howard, is still nominally a Labor seat but the LNP and One Nation will be eyeing off the southern end with the seat picking up Deebing Heights, along with sections of Ripley and South Ripley.
The ALP still should hold Ipswich because the majority of the seat's residents are in traditional Labor voting areas.
The new seat of Jordan, containing the Springfield suburbs in the north, Greenbank and then to the south Undullah and Kagaru, is up for grabs.
The seat will field all new candidates and the ALP, LNP and One Nation will all fancy their chances.
Notionally, it should be a Labor seat. It sits in the Federal seats of Blair and Oxley, held by ALP MPs, and covers an area that has been held mostly by a Labor state member until now.
The seats held by the ALP in the Ipswich region are theirs to lose.
The lessons from recent elections, at both a state and federal level, suggest electors are ready to vote governments out and not in.
A lot of people are doing it tough and Parliament can become a bubble for MPs not prepared to press the flesh and get out in their communities at a grass roots level, excluding the myriad of functions they often attend with other movers and shakers.
As I see it, the trap for the sitting ALP members in these seats is to sit back and say very little in Parliament or in the press about the issues facing their communities.
All of them need to lift their game in this respect. More grunt, less graft.
Ipswich will once again embrace One Nation at the next election, to some degree.
If it is in droves then Mr Madden is the one who is most at risk.