Oma could bring Warwick an old-fashioned drenching
BY THE time the weekend arrives, the Southern Downs could be swimming in rainfall or still bone dry.
It all depends on what Tropical Cyclone Oma does.
Weatherzone meteorologist Jacob Cronje said the system was acting erratically, throwing out forecasts and modelling at observation posts across the globe.
"All we can say for certain is the current indications are that TC Oma is heading southwest toward the southeast Queensland coast," he said
"The entire southeast coast of Queensland will be affected by rainfall."
There are a few possibilities in the works.
One path shows the cyclone to tracking south and running parallel with the coast line.
If this happens, Mr Cronje said the Southern Downs will get rain from Saturday evening and into Sunday morning.
"But most of the rain will be confined to the coast and immediate inland," Mr Cronje said.
The second option is for TC Oma to make landfall somewhere between Fraser Island and Kempsey, New South Wales.
If this happens, Mr Cronje said Warwick could be in for a large amount of rainfall from Saturday, through to next week.
"There is a great deal of uncertainty to how this system will act," he said.
It is unusual for a cyclone to travel as far south as TC Oma and it is equally unusual for them move in from the west.
The nearest equivalent to TC Oma is TC Debbie, but Mr Cronje said there were still plenty of differences between the two.
"This system's behaviour is more erratic than Debbie, it has tracked from a different location, has a different movement speed and it is also happening further to the south."
Regardless of its trajectory, the system is full of rain.
"Parts of the coast could see up to 300mm between Friday and Monday," Mr Cronje said.
"It could stretch inland or stay isolated to the coast."