A number of critical seats will decide the outcome of the Queensland election.
A number of critical seats will decide the outcome of the Queensland election.

The 15 seats that will decide the election

AMID the newly redistributed Queensland electoral boundaries, these are the critical seats that could decide the outcome of the state poll.

Rowan Holzberger (ALP)
Rowan Holzberger (ALP)

 

Sam O'Connor (LNP)
Sam O'Connor (LNP)

Bonney

This new seat has been created between Broadwater and Southport and is marginally LNP. But it's the one Gold Coast seat Labor has the most chance of picking up if it succeeds in its quest for majority government.

LNP: Sam O'Connor; ALP: Rowan Holzberger; Greens: Amin Javanmard

 

 

 

Steve Dickson (PHON)
Steve Dickson (PHON)

Buderim

Currently held by One Nation, but polling suggests LNP defector Steve Dickson will lose the seat to his old party. Such a scenario would mean the protest party will need to select a new leader in the likey event they win representation at the poll.

PHON: Steve Dickson; LNP: Brent Mickelberg; ALP: Kenneth Mackenzie; Greens: Tracy Burton

David Batt (LNP)
David Batt (LNP)

Bundaberg

A marginal Labor seat, whose MP Leanne Donaldson was forced to quit as agriculture minister in late 2016 after revelations she had racked up an outstanding council rates debt of almost $8000, as well as unpaid rego bills. She's in a three-cornered contest with the LNP and One Nation.

ALP: Leanne Donaldson; LNP: David Batt; PHON: Jane Truscott

 

 

Sam Cox (PHON)
Sam Cox (PHON)

Burdekin

This marginal LNP seat becomes marginally Labor in the redistribution. The ALP is running a high-profile local councillor and One Nation is running a former LNP MP. But more interestingly is the massive independent vote of 24 per cent that was recorded at the 2015 election. Those combined factors, as well as new compulsory preferential voting, make the outcome here unclear.

LNP: Dale Last; ALP: Mike Brunker; PHON: Sam Cox; Greens: Mathew Bing

Mario Quagliata (LNP)
Mario Quagliata (LNP)

Hill

A radically altered seat based around Innisfail and the Atherton Tableland. It is now notionally an LNP seat with a 4.9 per cent margin and will be tough for sitting Katter's Australian Party MP Shane Knuth to retain

LNP: Mario Quagliata; KAP: Shane Knuth; ALP: TBA

Jennifer Howard (ALP)
Jennifer Howard (ALP)

Ipswich

A safe Labor seat held by a margin of 16 per cent. However, the candidacy of Senate reject Malcolm Roberts has added a curve ball to this contest.

ALP: Jennifer Howard; LNP : TBA; ON: Malcolm Roberts

Jim Savage (PHON)
Jim Savage (PHON)

Lockyer

The retirement of the LNP's Ian Rickuss well and truly throws open the contest for the seat, which he only just held against a One Nation onslaught led by Pauline Hanson herself in 2015. The resurgent party attracted 20 per cent of the vote in the area at the federal election, and the seat is widely considered to One Nation's strongest chance this poll.

LNP: Jim McDonald; PHON: Jim Savage; ALP: TBA; Greens: Ian Simons

Corinne McMillan (ALP)
Corinne McMillan (ALP)

Mansfield

An LNP seat in Brisbane's south that's become notionally Labor after the redistribution. Labor is throwing resources at the seat and needs to pick up the electorate to counter regional losses.

LNP: Ian Walker; ALP: Corrine McMillan

Member for Maryborough Bruce Saunders. Estimate Committee hearing at Parliament House. Pics Tim Marsden
Member for Maryborough Bruce Saunders. Estimate Committee hearing at Parliament House. Pics Tim Marsden

Maryborough

Regarded as a miracle win by Labor in 2015. The party is talking up Bruce Saunders chances and it's a seat the Government must retain.

ALP: Bruce Saunders; LNP: TBA; ON: James Hansen

Belinda Kippen (LNP)
Belinda Kippen (LNP)

Miller

The traditionally safe Labor seat of Yeerongpilly had a margin of 13.3 per cent before its significant boundary and name change that brings the margin closer to 5 per cent. Main Roads and Energy Minister Mark Bailey only recently returned to Cabinet following a long-running investigation into his use of private email for work. Although he broke ministerial rules, he was ultimately cleared of corruption and says the probe won't hurt his re-election.

ALP: Mark Bailey; LNP: Belinda Kippen; Greens: Deniz Clarke

 

Jessica Pugh (ALP)
Jessica Pugh (ALP)

Mount Ommaney

This was the LNP's most marginal after the 2015 election, but the inclusion of Labor-voting Darra in the redistribution swings it to Labor. The fierce fight has already seen a bizarre double press conference at which Annastacia Palaszczuk, then Tim Nicholls, stood on the same piece of land hours apart to announce a $65m upgrade to Sumners Road.

LNP: Tarnya Smith; ALP: Jessica Pugh; PHON: Ian Eugarde; Greens: Jenny Mulkearns

 

 

Malcolm Charlwood (PHON)
Malcolm Charlwood (PHON)

Mundingburra

The Government faces a battle in the regions where high unemployment has bitten and locals feel they've been ignored by Brisbane-centric politicians. Mundingburra is now one of Labor's most marginal, but the resurgence of One Nation could throw open the race in all three Townsville-based seats.

ALP: Coralee O'Rourke; LNP: Matthew Derlagen; PHON: Malcolm Charlwood

Rick Williams (IND)
Rick Williams (IND)

Pumicestone

New boundaries turn this Labor seat notionally LNP and incumbent Rick Williams may have a fight on his hands after a number of scandals involving his inappropriate behaviour.

IND: Rick Williams; ALP: TBA; LNP: Simone Wilson; PHON: Greg Fahey; Greens: Tony Longland

Amy MacMahon (Greens)
Amy MacMahon (Greens)

South Brisbane

The Greens say they're just a few hundred votes away from stealing this long-time Labor seat from Deputy Premier Jackie Trad, but Labor thinks its greatest threat is from the LNP. Anti-development and anti-Adani sentiment in the electorate could feed a swing against Ms Trad, who is also Infrastructure and Planning Minister.

ALP: Jackie Trad; LNP: Simon Quinn; Greens: Amy MacMahon

Julie Talty (LNP)
Julie Talty (LNP)

Springwood

Changed boundaries mean this formerly blue-collar area will be even more of a challenge to hold for Labor. It fell to the LNP during the 2013 Newman Government landslide and was wrestled back by Housing Minister Mick de Brenni in 2015. He's already fighting a union-style campaign against him by Master Builders, who have placed billboards along the M1 through his electorate to make their anger about a construction crackdown known.

ALP: Mick de Brenni; LNP: Julie Talty; Greens: Neil Cotter

 

 

 

 

Mike Brunker (ALP)
Mike Brunker (ALP)
Leanne Donaldson (ALP)
Leanne Donaldson (ALP)
Shane Knuth (KAP)
Shane Knuth (KAP)
Malcolm Roberts (PHON)
Malcolm Roberts (PHON)
Jim McDonald (LNP)
Jim McDonald (LNP)
Ian Walker (LNP)
Ian Walker (LNP)
James Hansen (ON)
James Hansen (ON)
Mark Bailey (ALP)
Mark Bailey (ALP)
Simone Wilson (LNP)
Simone Wilson (LNP)
Jackie Trad
Jackie Trad
Mick de Brenni (ALP)
Mick de Brenni (ALP)
Tarnya Smith (LNP)
Tarnya Smith (LNP)
Coralee O’Rourke (ALP)
Coralee O’Rourke (ALP)

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