UPDATE:

BUREAU of Meteorology meteorologist Nicholas Shera confirmed a tropical low was forming in the monsoon trough in the Arafura Sea, north of the Tiwi Islands.

The low is expected to develop further early this week, moving southwest into the Timor Sea, and the likelihood it will develop into a tropical cyclone increases late on Tuesday or on Wednesday.

Mr Shera said it was too early to tell what the low might do after that.

If it did develop into a tropical cyclone, there is a possibility it could affect parts of North Queensland before the new year.

"We're saying there's a very low chance of any cyclone forming in the Coral Sea, but as far as the Gulf of Carpentaria is concerned ... there's a low chance today and a moderate chance on Tuesday or Wednesday," Mr Shera said.

"It's too early in the games to make those kinds of predictions (about landfall) right now."

Mr Shera said the bureau was monitoring the situation closely and would quickly warn the public should a dangerous situation develop.

Meanwhile, Mr Shera said the region could expect some rain and possible storms this week, including on Christmas Day.

"We are seeing on the radar right now there's some isolated shower activity to the south of Mackay," he said.

"Mackay itself isn't looking too bad today (Monday). There's a possible shower today, a possible morning shower tomorrow (Tuesday) and by tomorrow afternoon it should be mostly sunny.

"And should be mostly sunny Wednesday and Thursday, although on Thursday there's a chance of a shower or storm, but mostly pretty good weather.

"On Friday going into the weekend we have the possibility of some more coastal showers. Heading into Christmas Day, we're saying there's a medium chance of some showers about on Christmas Day, although with not much in them."

Mr Shera said areas inland from Mackay, such as Moranbah, may see a few more storms than coastal areas heading into Christmas.

TROPICAL CYCLONES

Cyclones which hit Australia in the last decade

Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasi　　　　　　

When: 30 January - 3 February 2011

Tropical Cyclone Anthony　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 23 - 31 January 2011

Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia　　　　　

When: 14 - 18 January 2011

Tropical Cyclone Robyn

When: 1 - 7 April 2010

Tropical Cyclone Paul　　　　

When: 22 March - 3 April 2010

Tropical Cyclone Sean　　　

When: April 2010

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului　　　　　　

When: 12 - 21 March 2010

Tropical Cyclone Olga　　　　

When: 19 - 30 January 2010

Severe Tropical Cyclone Magda

When: 19 - 24 January 2010

Tropical Cyclone Neville

When: 14 - 23 January 2010

Severe Tropical Cyclone Laurence　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 8 - 23 December 2009

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa　　　　　　　

When: 17 - 24 March 2009

Severe Tropical Cyclone Hamish

When: 5 - 12 March 2009

Tropical Low Gabrielle*

When: 28 February - 6 March 2009

Severe Tropical Cyclone Freddy

When: 3 - 13 February 2009

Tropical Cyclone Ellie　　　　　

When: 31 January - 2 February 2009

Tropical Cyclone Dominic　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 24 - 27 January 2009

Tropical Cyclone Charlotte　　　　　　　　　　

When: 11 - 12 January 2009

Severe Tropical Cyclone Billy　　　　　　

When: 15 December 2008 - 5 January 2009

Tropical Cyclone Anika　

When: 17 - 22 November 2008

Tropical Cyclone Jasper　　

When: 2009/2010

Tropical Cyclone Durga　

When: 20 - 25 April 2008

Tropical Cyclone Rosie　　

When: 20 - 24 April 2008

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pancho　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 23 - 30 March 2008

Tropical Cyclone Ophelia　　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 1 - 6 March 2008

Severe Tropical Cyclone Nicholas　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 11 - 20 February 2008

Tropical Cyclone Helen　

When: 1 - 7 January 2008

Tropical Cyclone Melanie　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 27 December 2007 - 2 January 2008

Tropical Cyclone Guba　　

When: 15-19 November 2007　　　　　 W, N ,E

Tropical Cyclone Lee-Ariel　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 11 - 15 November 2007

Unnamed Tropical Cyclone　　　　　　　　

When: 29 - 30 July 2007

Tropical Cyclone Pierre　

When: 16 - 17 May 2007

Severe Tropical Cyclone Kara　　　　　

When: 23 - 30 March 2007

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jacob　　　

When: 3 - 12 March 2007

Severe Tropical Cyclone George

When: 27 February - 10 March 2007

Tropical Cyclone Nelson

When: 5 - 7 February 2007

Tropical Low Isobel　　　　　　　　

When: 30 December 2006 - 5 January 2007

Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

When: 17 - 25 April 2006

Tropical Cyclone Hubert

When: 2 - 7 April 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Glenda

When: 27 - 31 March 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Floyd　　　

When: 18 - 27 March 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Wati　　　　　

When: 19 - 26 March 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry　　　　

When: 17 - 20 March 2006

Tropical Cyclone Emma

When: 26 February - 1 March 2006

Tropical Cyclone Kate　　　　

When: 22 - 23 February 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Jim　　　　　　　

When: 27 January - 1 February 2006

Tropical Cyclone Daryl　　

When: 17 - 23 January 2006

Severe Tropical Cyclone Clare　　　　

When: 6 - 11 January 2006